[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 142322
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142318 
OKZ000-TXZ000-150115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2207
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0618 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR N TX INTO CNTRL/ERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 142318Z - 150115Z

THREAT FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS /AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL/ MAY
SPREAD N/NE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN OK OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A WATCH IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV
IMAGERY...AND SEMI-ORGANIZED COLD POOL ALONG/SOUTH OF RED RIVER WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT NWD EXPANSION OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CNTRL AND ERN OK EARLY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE
MARGINAL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MODEST /20-30 KTS/...MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-2500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT
ISOLD PULSE-TYPE SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLD
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE HAZARDS WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS.

..GUYER.. 09/14/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

34399823 35439812 36279737 36189601 35849520 34579526
33759548 33509659 33939817 

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