[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 142218
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142214 
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-150015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2206
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0514 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NE INTO WRN AND CENTRAL IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 819...

VALID 142214Z - 150015Z

STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY ACROSS
PARTS OF E CENTRAL NE/W CENTRAL IA.  THE ACTIVITY IS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE EXIT REGION A 35-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND NEAR SURFACE DRY
LINE INTRUSION.  IN ADDITION...THIS ACTIVITY IS IN THE VICINITY OF
FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION ENHANCING UVVS ALONG A SW-NE ORIENTED
QUASI STATIONARY FRONT.  THE AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS RANGING IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S AND MLCAPE
AROUND 1500 J/KG.  LATEST AVAILABLE FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SHOWS
LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CURRENTLY BETWEEN 7.5 AND 8C/KM IN REGION
WHERE BRN SHEAR VALUES ARE BETWEEN 50-70 M2/S2.  

ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MULTICELLULAR INDICATING THAT THE MAIN THREAT
CAN BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...HOWEVER GIVEN THE BRN SHEAR
PROFILE...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

..MCCARTHY.. 09/14/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

41099734 42189722 43839322 43289292 41809290 40889520
40009735 

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