[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 141953
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141949 
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-142145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2205
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/SE WY INTO WRN NEB/NW KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 141949Z - 142145Z

TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/PROPAGATE EWD OFF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF
SE WY/ERN CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS -- AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO -- WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WW MAY
BE NEEDED BY 21Z.

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS SRN WY/NE UT/NW CO...WHILE VIS IMAGERY SHOWS
CU BUILDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE WY/NCNTRL CO. WITH AMPLE
INSOLATION AMIDST POST-FRONTAL REGIME...AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE WRN HIGH PLAINS OF NE CO/SW NEB/NW
KS. 19Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG
WITH WEAKENING CINH INVOF HIGHER TERRAIN. A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE INTO
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON PER 18Z RUC
GUIDANCE.

LATEST PLATTEVILLE CO/MEDICINE BOW WY PROFILER TIME-HEIGHT DATA
FEATURES DEEPENING MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
COUPLED WITH UPSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER TRAJECTORIES...MODERATE W/SW MID
LEVEL FLOW /50 KTS/ IS CONTRIBUTING TO VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS.

COMBINATION OF STRONG SHEAR/MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS/ROTATING STORMS...WITH ATTENDANT HAZARDS OF VERY
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AS WELL
OWING TO STRONGLY CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.

..GUYER.. 09/14/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

42220477 42310293 41940062 40139983 39330015 38800127
39060484 40500525 

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