[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 132025
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132021 
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-132145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2201
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD/NWRN IA SWWD INTO NERN/CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 132021Z - 132145Z

POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING WITH INITIATION POSSIBLE BY 21Z. CONDITIONS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD
FROM NEAR YKN SWWD TO NEAR BUB WITHIN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.
THOUGH 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF A
SUBSTANTIAL CAP...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED
WITH SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH /EXTENDING FROM
ERN SD SWWD INTO SWRN NEB/ HAVE LOCALLY REMOVED MUCH OF THE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. 

SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /I.E.
MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG/ IN CONJUNCTION WITH 30-35 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR
AND 150-250 M2/S2 0-3 KM SRH /PER NELIGH NEB PROFILER/ SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. DEEPLY-MIXED
CHARACTER OF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED AND CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED PRIOR
TO 21 OR 2130Z.

..MEAD.. 09/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

41279946 42159865 42759811 43859700 44039590 43449516
42429620 41889696 41039883 

WWWW