[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 131808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131804 
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-131930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2200
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN SWD ACROSS NERN MS AND NRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 131804Z - 131930Z

POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPING STORMS. A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

REGIONAL VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR MOSAIC INDICATE INCREASING TSTM
DEVELOPMENT FROM MIDDLE TN SWD INTO NERN MS AND NRN AL. HERE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED THROUGH THE 70S INTO LOWER 80S AND WHEN
COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS OF 65-70F AND MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF
AROUND -10C IS RESULTING IN MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
MOREOVER...CURRENT OKOLONA MS PROFILER IS SHOWING SELY FLOW THROUGH
THE LOWEST 2-2.5 KM VEERING TO WLY OR NWLY IN THE 5-7 KM LAYER WITH 
RESULTANT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 25KTS. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WILL
EXIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO
WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.

..MEAD.. 09/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

34638867 35818872 36438796 36438645 36078559 34908552
33938581 33528681 33718828 

WWWW