[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 081603
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081600 
VAZ000-NCZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-081800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2189
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM CDT WED SEP 08 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...ERN VA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 813...

VALID 081600Z - 081800Z

CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 813.  NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED
FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MUCH OF VIRGINIA...
LIKELY INCLUDING THE WASHINGTON D.C. AREA...BY 18Z.

INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VIRGINIA HAS BEEN
MINIMIZED TO THIS POINT BY SATURATED/NEARLY SATURATED THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES.  HOWEVER...AS NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF
MID/UPPER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON...CAPE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF VIRGINIA IN
THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY
IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...WHERE STRONGER SURFACE HEATING IS
ONGOING.

WITH LITTLE REMAINING INHIBITION...INCREASING/DEEPENING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEXT FEW HOURS FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO THE
COASTAL PLAINS OF VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA...PERSISTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  GIVEN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH 40 KT
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET SLOWLY NOSING NORTHWARD THROUGH REGION...
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 09/08/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

35627955 36777943 37337939 38057901 38877804 38897705
37847682 36587681 35787710 35097739 34657772 34327837
34627908 

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