[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 081244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081241 
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-081445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2188
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT WED SEP 08 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN NC...SRN VA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 813...

VALID 081241Z - 081445Z

TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING.
WITH INSOLATION STRONGEST OVER RELATIVELY PRECIP-FREE AREAS OF
NC...DIFFERENTIAL/DIABATIC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DIURNAL
REDEVELOPMENT OF BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER ERN SEMICIRCLE OF CYCLONE. 
MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THIS PROCESS WILL BE OVER NRN NC...SHIFTING NWD
INTO SRN VA.  THIS REGION WILL BE IN OPTIMAL OVERLAP OF NRN PORTION
OF STRONGEST BUOYANCY AND SRN PORTION OF RELATIVELY BACKED SFC FLOW
-- WHERE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE MOST ENLARGED.  12Z GSO RAOB SHOWS
200-300 J/KG 0-1 KM SRH AND AROUND 700 J/KG SBCAPE PRIOR TO DIURNAL
HEATING.

VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASES RAPIDLY WITH EWD EXTENT NEAR ERN EDGE OF WW
BASED ON VWP AND RAOBS.  SHEAR DROPS OFF MORE GRADUALLY WITH SWD
EXTENT ACROSS NC.  STILL...AIR MASS S OF DEVELOPING FRONTAL ZONE IN
WW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MINI-SUPERCELLS AND TORNADO POTENTIAL. 
OVER THIS AREA EXPECT SBCAPE INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND
FAVORABLE SRH -- ESPECIALLY FOR ANY CELLS DEVIATING RIGHTWARD FROM
PREVAILING ORIENTATION OF CONVECTIVE BANDS.

..EDWARDS.. 09/08/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

34547729 34548083 37208112 37227747 

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