[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 081942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081939 
MDZ000-NCZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-082145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2190
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CDT WED SEP 08 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN VA...ERN NC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 814...

VALID 081939Z - 082145Z

CONTINUE WW.  POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TORNADOES
CONTINUES...BROADER SCALE RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE A
BIT.

WARM...VERY MOIST AND BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL
REMNANTS OF FRANCES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES LIKELY WILL REMAIN IN AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF
RICHMOND VA INTO THE VICINITY OF WASHINGTON D.C AND
CHARLOTTESVILLE...WHERE THERE HAS BEEN SUNSHINE AND  LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION/VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT ARE MOST PRONOUNCED.  

RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST WITH NORTH-SOUTH BANDS OF
CONVECTION SLOWLY SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
NORTH CAROLINA...JUST AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING EVIDENT
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  HOWEVER...WITH HODOGRAPHS MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL NEAR THESE LINES...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY BE PRIMARY
THREAT AS MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS
TRANSFERRED TOWARD SURFACE.  ACTIVITY MAY GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO
ONE LINE AS IT PROGRESSES TOWARD THE WASHINGTON D.C./NORFOLK BY
AROUND 09/00Z.

..KERR.. 09/08/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...

38647844 39097751 39587656 37527604 36087678 35217792
35807842 37407847 37987862 

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