[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 070725
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070722 
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-070845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2180
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN FL...ERN GA...SC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 807...

VALID 070722Z - 070845Z

ANOTHER REPLACEMENT WW PROBABLY WILL MAY BE REQUIRED BEFORE
SCHEDULED 9Z EXPIRATION.  WITH GRADUAL INLAND SHIFT OF PARENT
CYCLONE AND OF ASSOCIATED FAVORABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY FIELDS IN ERN
SEMICIRCLE...SUCH WW MAY NEED TO BE POSITIONED SOMEWHAT FARTHER N
AND/OR W.  

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CENTER OF FORMER TC FRANCES INVOF GA/AL
BORDER APPROXIMATELY 40 NNE DHN...MOVING NNW 10-15 KT AND POSSIBLY
TURNING N OR NNE TOWARD ISALLOBARIC MIN ANALYZED OVER W-CENTRAL GA. 
THERMAL/MOIST AXIS ARE NEARLY COLOCATED -- INVOF SAV RIVER.  GIVEN
NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC DEEP LAYER LAPSE RATES CHARACTERISTIC OF
TROPICAL SYSTEM...THIS ALSO CORRESPONDS TO AXIS OF MAX BUOYANCY --
MUCAPE INCREASING FROM AROUND 200 J/KG BETWEEN AHN-MCN TO ABOUT 1000
J/KG INVOF SAV.  KINEMATICALLY...SFC WINDS ARE DIMINISHING FASTER
THAN FLOW ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER -- I.E. AT 850 MB -- RESULTING IN NET
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER MUCH OF WW AREA AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS SC/GA.  VWP AND MODEL FCST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE 0-1 KM SRH
150-300 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF SC AND NRN FL...ALONG NRN AND SRN
PERIPHERIES RESPECTIVELY OF INSTABILITY AXIS.  SRH IS MAXIMIZED
ABOVE 400 J/KG OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/WRN GA JUST AHEAD OF SYSTEM
CORE...BUT IN REGION OF MINIMIZED SFC-BASED INSTABILITY AND MORE
STRATIFIED/NEBULOUS PRECIP CHARACTER.  OPTIMAL COMBINATION OF SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NWD FROM E-CENTRAL GA AND SRN SC
INTO NERN GA AND CENTRAL SC.

TORNADO THREAT NOT FINISHED BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS NRN
FL...WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ALSO ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING IN N
FL AREA ABOVE SFC...SHIFTING LARGEST HODOGRAPHS FARTHER N. 
STILL...SOME OF NRN FL MAY NEED TO REMAIN IN WW BEYOND 09Z.

..EDWARDS.. 09/07/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...MLB...JAX...

29268236 33828180 33817917 29247987 

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