[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 070933
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070930 
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-071230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2181
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0430 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN GA...NWRN SD AND SWRN NC

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 070930Z - 071230Z

HEAVY RAINFALL HAZARD IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE GREATLY THROUGH AT
LEAST 12Z OVER NWRN SC AND SWRN NC -- ESPECIALLY ON SE FACING SLOPES
-- WITH 2-3 INCHES/HOUR LIKELY IN MANY LOCALES.

REMAINS OF TC FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY NWD THROUGH
MIDMORNING...CENTERED INVOF AL/GA BORDER BUT CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD
ENVELOPE OF HEAVY WARM-CLOUD PRECIP AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITHIN
ABOUT 250 NM OF CENTER IN NERN SEMICIRCLE.  NRN PORTION OF THIS
PRECIP SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO IMPINGE UPON MORE OF SRN APPALACHIANS. 
INTENSE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT UPSLOPE EXPECTED AMIDST 35-50
KT SELY LLJ AND PW EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY WILL BE
LIMITED AMIDST NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC DEEP-LAYER LAPSE
RATES...SBCAPES TO 300 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE AND MAY SUPPORT LOCAL
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENTS TO RAINFALL.  HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF NRN GA. 
THOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW COMPONENT NORMAL TO HIGHLANDS IS NOT AS LARGE
HERE AS FARTHER NE...GREATEST THREAT HERE ALSO IS ON SE-FACING
SLOPES WITH 1-2 INCHES/HOUR COMMON FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.

..EDWARDS.. 09/07/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...

34958472 35038437 35508339 35938208 35718110 35328091
35168098 34918132 34758229 34658345 34668449 34598498 

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