[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 062314
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062312 
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-070115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2178
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0612 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SERN GA...SRN SC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 805...806...

VALID 062312Z - 070115Z

ISOLATED FEEDER BAND SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ROTATE
INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF NERN FL/SERN GA AND SRN SC
TONIGHT AS CENTER OF T.S. FRANCES MOVES SLOWLY NWD OVER SRN GA.
WHILE THE CYCLONE IS VERY LARGE...LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND SHORT
TERM MODEL DATA APPEAR TO SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST LOW THROUGH MID
LEVEL WINDS /50-60KT/ ARE SITUATED WITHIN THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE
STORM...PRIMARILY FROM EXTREME NERN FL NWD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
TO SC. SHEAR AND HELICITY ACROSS THESE AREAS REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITHIN THE BANDS OF CONVECTION ROTATING AROUND
FRANCES. STORMS MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE GULF STREAM WATERS ALSO
APPEAR TO BE IN PROXIMITY TO GREATER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY COMPARED
TO CONVECTION FARTHER INLAND BASED ON LTG STRIKE DATA. THUS...IT
SEEMS THAT ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST WILL
PROBABLY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR.

..CARBIN.. 09/06/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...

30028133 30038265 32148304 33558166 33347912 

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