[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 061151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061148 
FLZ000-061315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2175
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 061148Z - 061315Z

POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
WW IS BEING ISSUED.

RADAR/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
WITHIN RAINBAND FROM JUST S OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR NEWD INTO
POLK/OSCEOLA COUNTIES ON BACKSIDE OF FRANCES CIRCULATION. IT APPEARS
THAT LOCALIZED BOUNDARY-LAYER CONVERGENCE IS OVERCOMING
BROADER-SCALE PRESSURE RISES AND ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE BAND.
CURRENT TAMPA AND MELBOURNE VWPS INDICATE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
THROUGH THIS SAME CORRIDOR WITH 0-1 KM SRH VALUES OF 300-400 J/KG.
THOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 500
J/KG...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGERY DOES SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION. 

GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED DECREASE IN STABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR
PROFILES...ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND BRIEF TORNADOES.

..MEAD.. 09/06/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

26468306 28428201 29318149 29018089 28168049 26358174
25948274 

WWWW