[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 052311
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052308 
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-060145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2169
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0608 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO....ERN KS....NRN/CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 052308Z - 060145Z

SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD/SEWD ALONG PREFRONTAL
WIND SHIFT CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM NWRN MO ACROSS ERN KS AND INTO
NWRN OK. VERY MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE WIND
SHIFT AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
SUSTAIN TSTMS ALONG THE LINE OF LOW LEVEL FORCING. HOWEVER...WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DUE IN PART TO 500MB TEMPERATURES OF AOA
MINUS 5C...SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL STORM INTENSITY. ALSO...WITH UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SPEED MAX LIFTING AWAY FROM THE
REGION...RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ONLY
POORLY ORGANIZED LINEAR MULTICELLS. ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS NWRN
MO...ON THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW. ONE OR TWO STORMS
MOVING ACROSS THIS REGION COULD BRIEFLY ATTAIN SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS GIVEN FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF MODEST INSTABILITY
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD...HOWEVER...
CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO LIMITED IN TIME AND SPACE FOR A WATCH TO BE
ISSUED.

..CARBIN.. 09/05/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

37169474 34549852 35759920 37689604 40399436 40419234 

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