[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 052248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052246 COR
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-060015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2168
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0546 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN AND WRN IA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 801...

VALID 052246Z - 060015Z

CORRECTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO TORNADO WATCH

STRONG PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWED
SEGMENTS CONTINUES MOVING EAST ACROSS IA AND SRN MN. SMALL SCALE BOW
 ECHO WAS MOVING FROM ADAIR AND GUTHRIE COUNTIES INTO DALLAS AND
MADISON COUNTIES AT ABOUT 40KT. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WERE LOCATED
ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER FROM JACKSON COUNTY MN INTO DICKINSON COUNTY
IA...AND POINTS SOUTH. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ERN PARTS OF THE WATCH
AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS AND BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS AS POTENT UPPER TROUGH LIFTS ENEWD FROM ERN SD AND
NERN NEB TONIGHT.

ADDITIONAL CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS ERN
NEB...AND NEAR THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW OVER SERN SD OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. DYNAMIC FORCING INVOF THESE FEATURES SHOULD SUSTAIN THE
THREAT OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS. INSTABILITY OVER PARTS OF
ERN NEB IS LIMITED IN THE WAKE OF ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST AND THIS
SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. STORMS OVER SD COULD CONTAIN HAIL
GIVEN DEVELOPMENT IN PROXIMITY TO UPPER COLD POOL.

..CARBIN.. 09/05/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...

44469796 45199304 40599278 40719619 

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