[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 052111
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052109 
FLZ000-GAZ000-052315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2166
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0409 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...E COAST OF FL/SE GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 800...

VALID 052109Z - 052315Z

HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH FEEDER BANDS
IN THE NE QUADRANT OF T.S. FRANCES EXTENDING FROM SE GA OVER THE
GULF STREAM. THIS IS THE WHERE THE GREATEST MOISTURE INFLUX IS
CONCENTRATED...AND LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THERE
MAY BE BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOWING FOR INCREASED
DESTABILIZATION. ALSO...RADAR IMAGERY HAS PERIODICALLY SHOWN MORE
CELLULAR STRUCTURES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE BANDS AND TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED WITH ANY DISCRETE CELL AS IT MOVES
ONSHORE. LATEST VWP WIND DATA FROM JACKSONVILLE INDICATES AROUND
35-45 KT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-1 KM SHEAR WITH CIRCULAR HODOGRAPH
STRUCTURE...INDICATIVE OF THE FAVORABLE TORNADIC ENVIRONMENT. 

CENTER OF FRANCES IS NOW OVER POLK/HILLSBOROUGH CO LINE...AND AS THE
INNER CIRCULATION MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THERE COULD BE AN
INCREASED RISK OF TORNADOES ALONG THE W CNTRL FL COAST. 

OTHERWISE...BAND OF STRONGER CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM SCNTRL GA
INTO W CNTRL FL PANHANDLE SHOULD ENCOUNTER A LESS FAVORABLE AIRMASS
AS IT MOVES WNW. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE EDGE OF THE RICH
TROPICAL AIRMASS MAY BE MARKED BY THIS BAND GIVEN WEAK CHARACTER OF
CUMULUS FIELD FARTHER NORTHWEST.

..TAYLOR.. 09/05/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...JAX...

27617866 29048104 30018218 31288289 31698181 29757919
28547815 27777812