[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 052144
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052142 
WIZ000-MNZ000-052345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2167
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0442 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN MN AND WRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 052142Z - 052345Z

PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN MN...NORTH OF TORNADO WATCH 801...MAY NEED TO
BE COVERED BY ANOTHER WATCH AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED INTO CNTRL MN ATTM AND WAS SITUATED ROUGHLY
ALONG A FMM TO JMR LINE. A N-S PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE INTERSECTED
THE WARM FRONT OVER NRN TODD AND WRN WADENA COUNTIES WITH MOST
ACTIVE CELLS BASED ON LTG DATA CURRENTLY OCCURRING TO THE NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. DESPITE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...THE LINE OF
CONVECTION WAS MOVING INTO SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY SITUATED
ACROSS ECNTRL MN. LATEST FCST SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING STRONG AND DEEP
SLY FLOW THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE WITH MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE ONGOING LINE CAN POSE A
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND OR TORNADO THREAT GIVEN ITS ORIENTATION TO
THE MEAN FLOW. HOWEVER...STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL PROBABLY EXIST NEAR THE FRONT/SQUALL LINE INTERSECTION AND
STORMS IN THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ROTATION. SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD
ENHANCE SHEAR PROFILES AND PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF THIS TREND TOWARD GREATER STORM
ORGANIZATION APPEARS MORE LIKELY.

..CARBIN.. 09/05/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

45279573 45349639 47029633 47539347 47599259 46019211
45199216 

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