[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 042333
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042330 
FLZ000-050100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2163
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0630 PM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 042330Z - 050100Z

A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER FL SHORTLY.

LARGE EYEWALL OF HRCN FRANCES WAS CONTINUING TO MOVE TOWARD THE
EAST-CNTRL COAST OF FL THIS EVENING. TROPICAL TORNADO POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE PENINSULA EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
LARGE CIRCULATION LUMBERS WNWWD. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INFORMATION
SUGGESTS VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE NWRN QUADRANT OF THE
HRCN WITH 0-1KM SRH OF 250-400 M2/S2. CONVECTION WITHIN THE EYEWALL
CAN UTILIZE THIS SHEAR TO PRODUCE SMALL SCALE AND SHORT LIVED
TORNADOES AND POCKETS OF HIGHER DESTRUCTIVE WINDS. TORNADO POTENTIAL
MAY ALSO EXIST WITHIN CONVECTIVE FEEDER BANDS SPREADING INLAND WELL
AWAY FROM THE EYEWALL. GIVEN SLOW FORWARD SPEED OF FRANCES...THIS
TORNADO THREAT WILL OBVIOUSLY EXIST FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

..CARBIN.. 09/04/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

26648003 26638207 29848329 29908119 

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