[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 042305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042302 
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-050130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2162
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0602 PM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...CNTRL NEB...NWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 042302Z - 050130Z

PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING TSTM
ACTIVITY TONIGHT.

A SHARP COLD FRONT ALIGNED SW-NE FROM NERN CO INTO NCNTRL NEB
EXPECTED TO BECOME A FOCUS FOR STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER NEXT FEW
HOURS. HIGH-BASED ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INCREASING ALONG
PREFRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH AXIS FROM ERN CO ACROSS NWRN KS AND INTO
SWRN NEB OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IN ADDITION TO MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FLOWING ACROSS THE FRONT...LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL JET COUPLING AND PRONOUNCED UPPER
TROUGH/WIND MAX ROTATING NEWD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
SUSTAIN DEEP LAYER ASCENT ACROSS WRN/CNTRL NEB TONIGHT.

ACTIVITY NOW SPREADING NEWD ALONG THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS IN
MARGINALLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT BUT COULD STILL POSE A THREAT OF
ISOLD STRONG DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS THIS EVENING AS STORMS MOVE
ACROSS HOT AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS.

CURRENTLY IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES 
WERE RELATIVELY WARM WITH RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATING MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES FOR HAIL PRODUCTION. HOWEVER...INCREASING ASCENT COUPLED WITH
DESTABILIZATION AND SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE GREATER STORM COVERAGE AND
AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL NEB. A
FEW EMBEDDED STORMS COULD EXHIBIT SUPERCELL STRUCTURE GIVEN
POST-FRONTAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35-45KT. WITH THE BULK
OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINING ELEVATED...AND ONLY MARGINAL HAIL
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

..CARBIN.. 09/04/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

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