[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 042009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042006 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-042200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2161
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SE ND/NW AND W CNTRL MN...NE SD

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE POTENTIAL 

VALID 042006Z - 042200Z

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE/INTENSIFY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS LIMITED AND WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THE PRESENT TIME.

PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE FARGO ND AREA...ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE
EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. 
ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD
GENERATED BY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...IN WAKE OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO...AND AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

AS LATTER FEATURE CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD...MODELS SUGGEST UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION WILL INTENSIFY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
DIVERGENT.  THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO EXPANDING CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER...WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE SOUTHWARD INTO WARM
SECTOR OF WEAK SURFACE WAVE/LOW IN THE ABERDEEN SD AREA...WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME FOCUSED.  STEEPER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ON NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THIS AREA WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG.  THIS MAY BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED/SHORT DURATION SEVERE
THREAT...PARTICULARLY AS SHEAR PROFILES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS BY THE 22-23Z TIME FRAME.  PRIMARY RISKS APPEAR TO BE
MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGEST STORMS.

..KERR.. 09/04/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

47049801 47689701 47489545 46179537 45509630 44839694
44439738 44209819 44919852 45999824 46269844 

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