[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 031930
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031927 
NMZ000-COZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-032130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2157
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 PM CDT FRI SEP 03 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AZ/WRN NM INTO FOUR CORNERS REGION

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE POTENTIAL 

VALID 031927Z - 032130Z

TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

STRONG SURFACE HEATING/OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND BROAD ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AHEAD OF DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ARE CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING/
DEEPENING CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN ARIZONA AND WRN NEW
MEXICO.  WHILE WARM/DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS SLOWED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TO THIS POINT...COOLING/MOISTENING IS EVIDENT IN LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU. 
ADDITIONALLY..TONGUE OF TROPICAL MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
BEGINNING TO RAPIDLY ADVECT NORTHWARD IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEW
MEXICO/ARIZONA BORDER. THUS...IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL GROW
INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS NEXT FEW HOURS.  THOUGH SHEAR PROFILES ARE
STILL RATHER WEAK...CAPE INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WILL
SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS.  CONTINUING PRESENCE OF UNSATURATED AIR
IN LOWER/MID-LEVELS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGEST STORMS.

..KERR.. 09/03/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

31411143 32521121 33201093 33801012 35110983 36410879
37090924 36140747 34770716 32750797 31760807 

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