[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 021945
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021942 
MIZ000-WIZ000-022115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2156
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT THU SEP 02 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN WI...CNTRL/ERN U.P AND FAR NRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 021942Z - 022115Z

AN ISOLATED SVR STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ALONG RESIDUAL WARM FRONT AND/OR LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE
ZONES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED ENOUGH
TO NOT WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK AND OR WW ISSUANCE.

RAPID SCAN VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPMENT OF TOWERING CU OVER
DELTA AND ALGER COUNTIES ALONG RESIDUAL WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINCE
1830Z. ADDITIONAL MODERATE CU HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ZONES ACROSS THE DOOR PENINSULA/FAR NERN WI AND OVER FAR
NRN LOWER MI. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CROSSING WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT COUPLED WITH AREAS OF
MAXIMIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 21Z. RECENT RUC MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS FOR STRONG-SVR
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LITTLE CINH REMAINING AND AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG
OF MLCAPE. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH ONLY 15-20 KTS AT
500 MB SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT. BUT
GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS/HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

..CROSBIE.. 09/02/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...

46528685 45888787 45488808 44938815 44578757 45178387
45538385 46388425 46598574 

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