[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 301917
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301916 
TXZ000-302145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2382
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 PM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 301916Z - 302145Z

ELEVATED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST TX AND THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING HAIL INTO
LATE AFTERNOON.

NEARLY STALLED COLD FRONT BISECTS CNTRL TX FROM THE BIG BEND TO THE
PINEY WOODS THIS AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WAS BEING DRAWN NWWD ACROSS THE STALLED BOUNDARY
AS DEEP LAYER FLOW BEGINS TO BACK IN ADVANCE OF AMPLIFYING LARGE
SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER BAJA/NWRN MEXICO. PLUME OF STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEING MAINTAINED BY MODERATE WSWLY MID LEVEL
FLOW...COUPLED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTENING NORTH OF THE
FRONT...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TSTMS ON
THE COOLER SIDE OF THE FRONT. DESPITE THIS ACTIVITY OCCURRING ABOVE
BOUNDARY LAYER CAPPING INVERSION... EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AT
LEAST 30KT WILL SUSTAIN/ENHANCE UPDRAFTS AND AID IN HAIL PRODUCTION.
OVERALL STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO WARRANT A WATCH
ACROSS THIS AREA.

..CARBIN.. 10/30/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

30720051 29810120 30240199 31050170 31720137 32930040
33309984 33459930 33479871 33249818 31899868 

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