[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 311847
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311847 
TXZ000-312045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2383
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 PM CST SUN OCT 31 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 311847Z - 312045Z

SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL WAS INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN HILL
COUNTRY...PRIMARILY NORTH OF I10...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TREND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN A COUPLE OF
HOURS.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE NEAR CONCHO COUNTY IN
CNTRL TX. CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING AROUND THIS FEATURE AND
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SHORT TERM MODEL FCSTS OF INCREASING UVV AND
QPF. WARM SECTOR AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND EAST OF THE SW/NE
ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WAS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SUGGESTING AT LEAST MODEST SURFACE HEATING AND
MLCAPE VALUES HAVE RESPONDED WITH LATEST VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM JCT TO FTW. AS TSTM ACTIVITY
INCREASES IN THIS CORRIDOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...A FEW CELLS ARE
LIKELY TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FRONTAL
WAVE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND
INCREASING AIRMASS INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE FORCING MAY FURTHER
LEND SUPPORT TO FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND/OR WIND
DAMAGE. TORNADO POTENTIAL...WHILE LIMITED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR AT
PRESENT...COULD INCREASE IF FRONTAL WAVE INTENSIFIES COINCIDENT WITH
INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE.

..CARBIN.. 10/31/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

32729738 32029749 31429797 30129936 29870023 30570072
32040011 33099914 33499880 33589818 33559769 33379742
33059735 

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