[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 292224
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292224 
IAZ000-MOZ000-300000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2369
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 869...

VALID 292224Z - 300000Z

LINE OF STORMS IS NOW BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED / INTENSE ACROSS IA. 
SEVERE THREAT -- INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES --
CONTINUES.

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS LINE OF STORMS WHICH EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY 30
NW MCW TO 50 ESE OMA INTENSIFYING OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES...WITH
OTHER / ISOLATED STORMS INCREASING AHEAD OF LINE.  ISOLATED STORM
NOW MOVING INTO CLARKE COUNTY HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS...AND EXPECT ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION OCCURRING
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT -- WHICH NOW APPEARS TO BE OVERTAKING
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH / DRYLINE ACROSS W CENTRAL IA.  DEWPOINTS ACROSS
S CENTRAL AND INTO CENTRAL IA HAVE INCREASED 2-3 DEGREES F OVER THE
PAST HOUR.  DESPITE VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS
REGION...STORMS HAD REMAINED RELATIVELY WEAK UP TO THIS POINT --
APPARENTLY DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH RESPECT TO STRENGTH OF
WIND FIELD.  HOWEVER...THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE / INSTABILITY
APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTING INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTIVE
UPDRAFTS...THUS EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO
2 HOURS AS STORMS SPREAD EWD TOWARD THE ERN HALF OF IA.

..GOSS.. 10/29/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...

43399390 43479221 40599254 40589520 42719396 

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