[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 292019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292019 
WIZ000-MNZ000-292215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2368
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL/CENTRAL MN INTO W-CENTRAL WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 292019Z - 292215Z

SEVERE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE FROM S-CENTRAL MN EWD INTO W-CENTRAL
WI BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. 

AT 20Z...WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM 990MB SURFACE LOW OVER
NERN SD EWD TO 25NW STC TO 50S DLH. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THE WARM FRONT IS ANTICIPATED BY THIS EVENING AS EXIT REGION OF
80-90KT 500MB JET ROTATES NEWD INTO SERN MN BY 30/00Z. ENHANCED
FIELD OF LOW-LEVEL CU EXTENDING FROM SWRN MN SSWWD INTO NERN KS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF DEEP-LAYER PVA...AND NRN FRINGE OF
THIS FORCING WILL ALSO AFFECT THE DISCUSSION AREA BY THIS EVENING.
IT APPEARS FROM VIS IMAGERY THAT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT WILL EVOLVE OUT THIS ENHANCED CU FIELD THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. 

TEMPERATURES ALONG/SOUTH OF WARM FRONT HAVE RECOVERED INTO THE LOW
TO MID 70S...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WELL IN
EXCESS OF 40KT AND SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ALSO
VERY STRONG...WITH STRONGEST VEERING/SRH LIKELY NEAR WARM FRONT
WHERE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF TORNADOES WILL EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.

..BANACOS.. 10/29/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...

45909106 46059189 46009398 45889459 43639410 43699280
43749172 44439103 44949085 45369080 

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