[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 291957
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291957 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-292230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2367
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN SD...SERN ND...CNTRL MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 291957Z - 292230Z

TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE ERN
DAKOTAS ENEWD ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL MN AS DEEPENING CYCLONE DEVELOPS
ENEWD THROUGH THIS EVENING.

INTENSE FORCED ASCENT WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 100KT MID LEVEL JET
MAX WILL ASSIST PRIMARILY ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS ACROSS CNTRL MN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WARM AND VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS BEING
LIFTED INTO THIS ZONE OF ASCENT WILL FUEL STOUT UPDRAFTS IN A
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. WHILE WARM SECTOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO SRN MN...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES AN
EARLIER TREND OF SUGGESTING THAT THE BULK OF CONVECTION AND
STRONGEST UPWARD MOTION WILL PERSIST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
FRONT...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK INTO CNTRL MN.
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT A SEVERE TSTM WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL MN AS THIS DEEP CONVECTION
DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 10/29/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

46249362 45769620 45219853 45930030 46699942 47489532
47719401 47239249 46439254 

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