[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 291912
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291912 
IAZ000-MOZ000-MNZ000-292145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2366
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN...IA...NRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 291912Z - 292145Z

TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN
PLAINS...PRIMARILY EAST OF THE MO RIVER...WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE EAST. A TORNADO WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MN...IA...AND PERHAPS NRN
MO...WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

WARM SECTOR AIRMASS ACROSS MO/IA AND SRN MN CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT HAS DEVELOPED STEADILY EWD
ACROSS MOST OF NEB AND SERN SD...AND TRAILS SSWWD INTO CNTRL KS.
DEEPER MIXING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS RESULTED IN
DIMINISHING INSTABILITY WEST OF THE MO RIVER. HOWEVER...MODEST
HEATING AND GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM SRN PLAINS INTO
IA/MN HAS CONTRIBUTED TO INCREASING MLCAPE IN THESE AREAS. REMAINING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE OVERCOME FROM MO NWD ACROSS IA AS
INTENSE FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADS INTO THESE AREAS BETWEEN 21-00Z.

SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT AS 90-100KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX SPREADS ENEWD FROM NWRN
KS INTO IA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WHILE STORMS MAY TEND TO BECOME
LINEARLY ORGANIZED ALONG THE FRONT WITH TIME...INITIAL ACTIVITY
COULD TAKE ON THE FORM OF VERY FAST MOVING SUPERCELLS. GIVEN DEGREE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS PARTS FROM MO INTO
IA...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES COULD OCCUR BEFORE CONVECTION MERGES INTO
LARGER SQUALL LINE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

..CARBIN.. 10/29/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...

40079465 40489546 41219566 42339541 43269535 43899520
44029388 43319302 42909260 41939261 41179262 40329343 

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