[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 291739
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291739 
MOZ000-KSZ000-292015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2365
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...WRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 291739Z - 292015Z

CHANCES FOR TSTM INITIATION APPEAR TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF ERN KS AND WRN MO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND A WATCH IS BEING ANTICIPATED.

STRONG UPPER TROUGH...ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER ERN SD...AND COLD
FRONT CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE FRONT/DRYLINE WAS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS NWRN/CNTRL KS...A
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE WAS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS SERN KS AND
SWRN MO ATTM. CU FIELD OVER THIS AREA HAS ALSO BEEN THICKENING. VERY
MOIST AIRMASS AND CONTINUED HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND DIMINISHING INHIBITION AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND
WITHIN THE CONFLUENCE ZONE. LATEST SREF AND RUC FCSTS SUGGEST THAT
TSTM INITIATION IS POSSIBLE OVER ERN KS/NWRN MO WITHIN THE NEXT 1-4
HOURS.

AS FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS RAPIDLY EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...FORCED
ASCENT WILL LIKELY OVERCOME ANY RESIDUAL CAPPING AND RESULT IN
HIGHER PROBABILITY OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ANY ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT/DRYLINE WILL OCCUR WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. IF PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS DISCRETE...LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LFC WOULD
SUPPORT TORNADO POTENTIAL. FURTHERMORE...INCREASINGLY STRONG DEEP
LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL RESULT IN RAPID NEWD CELL MOTION OF UP TO
50KT. THEREFORE...ONCE DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS...SEVERE POTENTIAL 
COULD SPREAD OVER A LARGE AREA IN RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

..CARBIN.. 10/29/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

37099567 37039656 37499685 38249656 39459545 40189491
40389407 40119358 39559358 37599483 

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