[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 272330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272330 
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-280130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2363
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0630 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL AND NERN NM / WRN PANHANDLES / SERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 272330Z - 280130Z

A FEW SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION...THOUGH
GENERALLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN LIMITED.

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE MID 70S
ACROSS ERN NM. THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR
60 HAS RESULTED IN 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE ACROSS ERN NM
AND INTO ADJACENT W TX.  SURFACE OBS -- ALONG WITH PROFILER / VWP
DATA -- ALSO SHOW LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SELY ACROSS ERN
PORTIONS OF NM INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE / TX SOUTH
PLAINS.  RESULTING WEAK CONVERGENCE / UPSLOPE FLOW HAS RESULTED IN
AN INCREASE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS.

ABOVE THE BACKING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD...MODERATE / DIFFLUENT SWLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW IS INDICATED.  RESULTING 40 TO 50 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...ALL OF WHICH SUGGEST AT LEAST A
LIMITED SEVERE THREAT.

AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES FROM THE SSE THIS EVENING...EXPECT STORMS
TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SHIFT NEWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND
ADJACENT AREAS WHERE SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS. 
HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED WITH TIME THIS EVENING AS
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS -- LIMITING THE SEVERE THREAT TO MARGINAL HAIL.


GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS
-- WITH HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND LOCALLY STRONG / GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE...BEFORE THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING.

..GOSS.. 10/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...

35430496 36520425 37590293 37340185 35810146 33930175
33540301 33240443 33590533 34840527 

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