[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 230044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230044 
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-230145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2355
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB...ERN SD...SWRN MN...NWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 230044Z - 230145Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SHORTLY FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA.

TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS STRONG
MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD NEWD TOWARD MN.  LATEST MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS A SURFACE LOW OVER SCNTRL SD.  A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT WAS
LINKED WITH THE LOW EXTENDING THROUGH THE RED RVR VLY. TO THE
SOUTH...THE COLD FRONT WAS ACCELERATING AND OVERTAKING THE DRYLINE
ACROSS CNTRL NEB.  A VERY NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS EXISTS IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT/LOW.  THERE HAS BEEN SOME TENDENCY FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE TO INCREASE/RECOVER ACROSS ERN NEB INTO SERN SD...RESULTING
IN MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG.  

THERE WILL LIKELY BE TWO MAIN AREAS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL.  THE MAIN
THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE ACROSS
EXTREME SERN SD...SWRN MN...NWRN IA AND NERN NEB.  AS STRONG FORCING
AIDS IN CAP REMOVAL...TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AS THE COLD
FRONT REACHES THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AXIS OVER ERN NEB.  THESE
TSTMS WILL THEN MOVE ENEWD.  ORIENTATION OF THE MEAN FLOW WITH
RESPECT TO THE BOUNDARY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR CELLS TO BOW GIVING
DAMAGING WINDS.

MEANWHILE...TSTMS...LIKELY ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL
EXPAND AND INTENSIFY ACROSS ERN/CNTRL SD AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
NEWD.  THESE TSTMS MAY GIVE ISOLD LARGE HAIL...GIVEN ELEVATED CAPE
OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZATION.

..RACY.. 10/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...

41289828 42799840 43739902 45599748 45899677 45619589
43359553 42319546 41439599 

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