[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231411
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231410 
WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-231545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2356
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0910 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WI INTO NERN MN/ARROWHEAD REGION

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 231410Z - 231545Z

SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING AND A WW MAY REQUIRED. ADDITIONALLY...SLIGHT
RISK WILL BE EXTENDED NWWD AT 1630Z.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED 988 MB LOW SE OF BJI WITH ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDED SEWD ACROSS W-CNTRL AND SWRN WI...WHILE
COLD FRONT WAS STEADILY PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF MN
AND IA. 12Z MPX SOUNDING /CAPTURING BOTH LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS ALONG
WARM FRONT AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF MID/UPPER-TROUGH
/ WAS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WITH 7.5-8 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...1000-1500 MLCAPES AND ONLY A SMALL CAP. 

DIABATIC HEATING WITHIN MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION THIS MORNING ACROSS SYSTEM WARM SECTOR
OVER WRN/CNTRL WI NWWD TO AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW TRACK OVER NERN MN.
EXPECT TSTMS CURRENTLY E OF MSP TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY ALONG WARM
FRONT. GIVEN THE LOCALLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG WARM
FRONT...POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL INCREASE THROUGH 18Z.

..MEAD.. 10/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...

46399348 47039278 47229120 45758905 44238838 43358892
43018950 43149044 44889275 

WWWW