[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 222126
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222126 
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-230000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2354
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0426 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...FAR NERN NEB...SWRN MN AND NWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 222126Z - 230000Z

RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR BETWEEN
23Z-01Z OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA /SERN SD AND FAR NERN NEB/.
STRENGTH OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY SUGGESTS AT LEAST ISO-SCT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP NEWD INTO SWRN MN AND NWRN
IA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 23Z. 

LEADING EDGE OF STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT COOLING/VERTICAL MOTION
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NEB...EVIDENT BY SFC BASED CUMULUS CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT INVOF ONL...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH 00Z. A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN THE 850-750 MB LAYER
EVIDENT ON THE 18Z OAX SOUNDING AND RUC40 FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL BE
ERODED AS STRONG VERTICAL MOTION MOVES INTO THE AREA. SFC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD FROM A LOW NEAR
ONL TO JUST NORTH OF FSD...EWD INTO FAR SWRN MN. SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 70S THROUGH
00Z. ALTHOUGH VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS AIDED IN DRYING TREND OVER
NCENTRAL NEB...THIS TREND IS LIKELY TO DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS LOW LEVEL JET BACKS AND STRENGTHENS. THUS AXIS OF MID/UPPER
60S DEWPTS SHOULD BE RETAINED IN THE MO RIVER VALLEY...SUPPORTING
MUCAPES FROM 1500-2500 J/KG. STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR INVOF OF
WARM FRONT INDICATES THAT A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...EXPECTED
STORM MOTIONS PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT INDICATE THAT DURATION OF
CONVECTIVE INTERACTION WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES NEAR THE FRONT
WILL BE LIMITED.

..CROSBIE.. 10/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

42229693 42959769 43549787 44269787 44569628 44489545
43789491 43039455 42179535 

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