[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 222055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222055 
TXZ000-222300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2353
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 222055Z - 222300Z

TSTMS MAY DEVELOP NEXT 1-2 HOURS ALONG DECELERATING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY THAT SEGMENT CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM
SUTTON/KIMBLE COUNTIES NEWD TOWARD BOSQUE COUNTY.  SEVERE WIND/HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE AND AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS DECELERATING IN ITS EWD/SEWD MOTION AS TIME
PASSES SINCE DEMISE OF CAUSATIVE CONVECTION.  CLOUD BREAKS ARE
EVIDENT BEHIND BOUNDARY....ALLOWING SFC TEMPS TO HEAT INTO UPPER 70S
AT BWD...FURTHER CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKENING OF COLD POOL.  THIS IS
EVIDENT IN ISALLOBARIC TRENDS AS WELL. BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL OVER
NEXT 1-2 HOURS...ALLOWING TCU/CB THAT DEVELOP ALONG IT TO REMAIN
ROOTED IN INFLOW LAYER TO ITS E WHICH IS CHARACTERIZED BY 2000-2500
J/KG MLCAPE.  VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUD ELEMENTS DEEPENING
ALONG AND JUST E OF BOUNDARY ATTM...WHILE RUC BASED ANALYSIS FIELDS
INDICATE CINH UNDER 25 J/KG OVER MOST OF AREA. STORMS FORMING ALONG
MORE ZONALLY ORIENTED SEGMENT OF BOUNDARY W JCT MAY MOVE OVER COLD
POOL...REDUCING SFC-BASED BUOYANCY.  GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO
RIGHT-MOVE ALONG OR E OF BOUNDARY IS FROM JCT NEWD BASED ON ITS
ORIENTATION.  ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES ARE RATHER
WEAK...DEEP-LAYER SHEARS OF 50-60 KT AND PRESENCE OF ENHANCED
SHEAR/VORTICITY RELATED TO BOUNDARY SHOULD ENHANCE SUPERCELL
POTENTIAL.  THOUGH THREAT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY
WIND/HAIL...DISCRETELY PROPAGATING CELLS ALONG SSW-NNE ORIENTED
PORTION OF BOUNDARY MAY POSE TORNADO THREAT.

..EDWARDS.. 10/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

30560092 30680042 30889937 31529859 32219757 31969707
31059718 30499787 30029913 29950046 30220114 30450120 

WWWW