[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 221903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221902 
NEZ000-SDZ000-222100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2352
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CENTRAL NEB AND SCENTRAL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221902Z - 222100Z

ISO-SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NEB
DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AND MOVE QUICKLY NEWD TOWARDS SCENTRAL SD
AFTER 22Z. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...AS WELL AS THE
SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SERN WY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INTO NWRN
NEB/SWRN SD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL CAA EVIDENT ON SAT
IMAGERY WITH RAPIDLY DEVELOPING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PROGRESS
EWD WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM AND AID IN REMOVING EXISTING CINH OVER
CENTRAL NEB OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO WARM.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER
70S OVER THE AREA...WITH DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. BACKED
LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW/COLD FRONT SHOULD LIMIT
ADDITIONAL DRYING OVER CENTRAL NEB. AS MID LEVEL COOLING INTERACTS
WITH THIS BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS...AROUND 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE WILL BE
REALIZED. STRONG FOCUSED LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW/COLD FRONT
ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SVR HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS MAY SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IF A CONVECTIVE LINE
CAN DEVELOP AND BECOME ORGANIZED PERPENDICULAR TO THE MEAN LOW-MID
LEVEL WINDS OVER NCENTRAL NEB/SCENTRAL SD.

..CROSBIE.. 10/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR...

41230035 41740070 42650026 43279948 43329850 43049785
42229758 41229856 

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