[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 221809
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221808 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-222015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2351
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0108 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME N-CENTRAL/NERN TX NEAR RED RIVER...MOST OF
ERN OK...PORTIONS EXTREME SERN KS AND SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221808Z - 222015Z

TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND OVERALL INTENSITY
WITHIN BROAD PRECIP BAND NOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS ERN/SRN OK AND
N-CENTRAL TX.  NRN PORTION OF ACTIVITY SHOULD EXPAND/MOVE NEWD INTO
PORTIONS EXTREME SERN KS AND SWRN MO AS WELL.  MAIN THREATS WILL BE 
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED
NEXT COUPLE HOURS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP BAND IS EVIDENT AT 18Z ALONG BVO-MWL LINE. 
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN IN WARM SECTOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BASED
ON SFC ANALYSIS OF WARM FRONT ACROSS WRN MO AND NRN AR.  DEEPENING
MOIST LAYER AND GRADUAL SFC HEATING -- WITH DEW POINTS COMMONLY
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F -- WILL SUPPORT MLCAPES INCREASING TO
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE.  VWP/PROFILER DATA AND RUC FCST WIND PROFILES
INDICATE CONTINUED REGIME OF BACKING WITH HEIGHT WITHIN 1-4 KM AGL
LAYER...SUPPORTING LINEAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES.  PRIND SMALL BOWS
MAY DEVELOP WITHIN LINE SEGMENTS AND AS FOREGOING INFLOW-LAYER AIR
ACQUIRES MORE SFC-BASED BUOYANCY...POTENTIAL SFC GUST STRENGTH WILL
INCREASE AS WELL.  ORIENTATION OF CONVECTIVE BAND NEARLY PARALLEL
WITH MEAN WIND VECTOR INDICATES INDIVIDUAL CELLS MAY BE
STRONG-SEVERE FOR SHORT PERIODS AT BEST BEFORE MERGING WITH PRECIP
FIELDS FROM ADJACENT STORMS...EXCEPT FOR ANY LEWP/BOW FORMATIONS
THAT DEVELOP.

..EDWARDS.. 10/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

33339801 33909724 34849667 35669670 35899675 36459650
36739621 37129558 37329506 37419463 37399423 37139414
36719431 36439454 35689480 34559493 34229507 33629550
33219717 

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