[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 221711
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221711 
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-221915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2350
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN WI/NWRN IL...SCENTRAL/ERN IA...AND NRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221711Z - 221915Z

ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER
NRN MO INTO ERN IA AND POSSIBLY INTO NWRN IL AND SWRN WI THROUGH THE
MID AFTERNOON. OVERALL THREAT IS LIKELY TO BE MARGINAL AND A WW IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN REGION OF MODERATE THETA-E
ADVECTION ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND NORTH OF THE SFC
WARM FRONT. STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS CONVECTION NEWD INTO NWRN IL AND SWRN WI THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG
WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN IA AND NRN MO.
IN THIS AREA...STEEPER LAPSE RATES UP TO 8 DEG C/KM IN THE MID
LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH PRONOUNCED EML WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A
MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR A GREATER
COVERAGE OF SEVERE WILL BE ELEVATED NATURE OF CONVECTION ABOVE
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE SFC-850 MB LAYER. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
DAMAGING WIND THREAT...AND ALSO DECREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO AROUND
30 KTS.

..CROSBIE.. 10/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...

39689394 40209482 40829474 41569402 42489299 43259185
43369083 43208993 42738980 41838954 40658993 39899138 

WWWW