[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 221529
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221529 
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-221730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2349
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN KS...SERN AND EXTREME
E-CENTRAL NEB...SWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221529Z - 221730Z

WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ROUGHLY BETWEEN SLN-OMA THROUGH
18Z AND MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD 35-45 KT ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA.  ALTHOUGH
ACTIVITY IS FCST TO REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE SFC...OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL
IS POSSIBLE.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS SHORT-TERM REGIME BUT MAY
BE REQUIRED LATER IN DAY...PER SITUATION DESCRIBED IN SWODY1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.  

MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG CAP
REMAINING IN PLACE NOW...AND FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 3-4 HOURS BASED ON
FCST BOUNDARY LAYER THERMODYNAMICS.  ROUGHLY 7-10 DEG F SFC HEATING
REQUIRED FOR ACTIVITY TO BE SFC-BASED WILL BE SLOW TO MATERIALIZE
BECAUSE OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LIMITING DIABATIC HEATING. 
HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE NOTED ABOVE CAPPING LAYER -- AT
LEAST 8 DEG C/KM BETWEEN 700-850 MB...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH 40-50 KT LLJ.  AREA WAS ALONG AND JUST W OF 850 MB
ISODROSOTHERMAL AXIS AT 12Z AND SHOULD REMAIN SO FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS WHILE MOISTURE ADVECTS NEWD INTO IA.  THIS RESULTS IN MUCAPE
2000-3000 J/KG...IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ROUGHLY 40 KT SHEAR
THROUGH LOWEST 6 KM OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

..EDWARDS.. 10/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

39069818 40009791 41229763 42279622 42129501 41369519
40539566 39599630 38599721 

WWWW