[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 221309
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221309 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-221515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2348
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0809 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NW/N CNTRL TX/WCNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221309Z - 221515Z

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NCNTRL TX AND
WCNTRL OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR
AS THE ACTIVITY SPREADS NEWD THIS MORNING.

12Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRYLINE IN PLACE FROM NEAR MIDLAND
EXTENDING NNEWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. EAST OF THE DRYLINE...SFC
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F BUT THE AIRMASS IS STRONGLY CAPPED. THIS
WILL KEEP STORMS ELEVATED AS THEY DEVELOP JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. THE STORMS SOUTHEAST OF LBB ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER
OF A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THE 12Z SOUNDING AT MAF SHOWS ABOUT 50 KT OF CLOUD LAYER
SHEAR AND THIS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS CONSIDERING MUCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 2000 J/KG. THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGEST A HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL
MAY EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..BROYLES.. 10/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

32370104 32900072 35009910 36729767 37159720 36529664
35249750 33319907 32070026 

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