[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 192008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192008 
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-192115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2341
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...MS/AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 865...866...

VALID 192008Z - 192115Z

A NEW TORNADO WATCH REPLACING WW 865 WILL BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 21Z TO
ACCOMMODATE ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NRN MS
SEWD INTO W-CNTRL AL WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAKS OVERSPREADING THE REGION APPEAR TO BE INFLUENCING ONGOING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GIVEN THE MARKED INCREASE IN STORMS EXHIBITING
MID-LEVEL ROTATION OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR.

FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DISTRIBUTION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE
SHEAR ACROSS MS/AL SUGGESTS THAT SUPERCELL AND ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING. THUS...A NEW WW WILL BE
ISSUED SHORTLY TO REPLACE WW 865...TO THE N OF TORNADO WATCH 866
VALID UNTIL 20/00Z.

..MEAD.. 10/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...

34539078 33718516 30598504 31219103 

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