[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 192011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192010 
TNZ000-192245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2342
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/MID TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 192010Z - 192245Z

TSTMS DEVELOPING AND INCREASING ACROSS WRN TN...IN NARROW WEDGE OF
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING LOCATED BETWEEN SFC COLD
FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ATTM.  THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL CONTINUE
FOR A FEW HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF WRN/MID TN TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM MEM...DYR...25 NNW HSV.  CELLS INTERACTING WITH BOUNDARY MAY
TIGHTEN ROTATION AND CARRY SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL.  WW NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY SMALL TIME/SPACE SCALE OF
AFFECTED AREA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM NWRN TN SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL
AR...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG LINE FROM 20 ENE TCL...TUP...MKL. 
BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIFT NEWD ACROSS WRN TN WHILE FRONT MOVES SEWD
10-15 KT OVER REMAINDER NERN AND EXTREME SWRN TN.  SFC BASED
BUOYANCY DIMINISHES SUBSTANTIALLY WITH EWD EXTENT FROM OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY BECAUSE OF STRENGTH/DEPTH OF COLD POOL FROM MORNING MCS.
AIR MASS BETWEEN FRONT AND BOUNDARY IS ESSENTIALLY UNCAPPED WITH LOW
70S F SFC DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG...BASED
ON RUC SOUNDINGS.  LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL W OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND E OF SFC COLD
FRONT...LIMITING WARM SECTOR SHEAR.  HOWEVER...WEAK/BACKED FLOW
ALONG AND JUST E OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RESULTS IN 150-250 J/KG SRH IN
0-1 KM LAYER.  BLEND OF MEM/BNA VWP AND OKO PROFILER WINDS SUGGEST
MIDLEVEL FLOW FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL.  THEREFORE EXPECT
GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL ALONG AND WITHIN 10-20 NM E OF BOUNDARY
BEFORE INSTABILITY BECOMES MORE ELEVATED.

..EDWARDS.. 10/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG...

35568980 36138921 36468863 36398838 36208814 35918807
35478819 35068835 35008870 35058983 

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