[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 191835
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191835 
LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-192100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2339
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0135 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME E TX...CENTRAL/SRN LA...SWRN MS
AWAY FROM WW 866

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191835Z - 192100Z

CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT FROM SABINE RIVER AREA EWD ACROSS LA
TOWARD MS RIVER...W AND SW OF WW 866.  PRIND MOST OF THIS AREA WILL
REMAIN TOO CAPPED AND WEAKLY CONVERGENT FOR TSTMS...EXCEPT OVER
COASTAL S-CENTRAL/SERN LA.  SHEAR PROFILES OVER EXTREME E TX AND
CENTRAL LA FAVOR SUPERCELLS WHERE STORMS CAN FORM.  MANY OFFSETTING
FACTORS EVIDENT ATTM...INDICATING TSTMS MAY BE ISOLATED AT BEST. 
THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN EVENT CAP BEGINS TO BREAK
WHERE SHEAR IS STRONGEST.

MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZING...THOUGH MIDLEVEL TEMPS ARE WARMING.  THIS RESULTS IN
MLCAPES APCHG 3000 J/KG FOR MID 70S F SFC DEW POINTS.  CINH APPEARS
TO BE WEAKER THAN 50 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF REGION ATTM...HOWEVER
CONVERGENCE SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AS WELL.  HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS
EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY ACROSS THIS REGION -- WITH OCCASIONAL DEEP CU
AND TCU EMBEDDED...ARE ALIGNED SW-NE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR
VECTOR.  SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS VEERED/SWLY FLOW ACROSS REGION...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE...MAKING MORE LOCALIZED
HCR ENHANCEMENTS THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT.  DEEPER TOWERS EVIDENT
IBERIA/VERMILION/IBERVILLE PARISHES MAY DEVELOP INTO TSTMS NEXT 1-2
HOURS...WITH LINEAR MODE LIKELY GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES AND
WEAKER SHEAR OVER SERN LA.

..EDWARDS.. 10/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

31208998 30328931 29609025 29539136 29869241 30099372
30619404 31389391 31819374 32369290 32749197 32799096
31769102 

WWWW