[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 191815
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191815 
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-191945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2338
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0115 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 865...

VALID 191815Z - 191945Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW AREA...WITH GREATEST
THREAT CURRENTLY ACROSS NRN MS.

TSTMS HAVE INTENSIFIED ACROSS NRN MS OVER THE PAST HOUR WITH
SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS BEING OBSERVED WITH STORMS OVER
LEE/ITAWAMBA AND YALOBUSHA COUNTIES AS OF 1755Z. LOCAL AIR MASS S OF
ONGOING ACTIVITY IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000
J/KG. PROFILER/VWP NETWORK ACROSS AR/LA/MS INDICATES THAT
MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK IS BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE
MS RIVER WITH 55-65 KT 500 MB WINDS BEING OBSERVED FROM FT. POLK LA
NEWD INTO NERN MS. OKOLONA MS PROFILER CONTINUES TO INDICATE
MODERATELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /I.E. 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/S2/
AND GIVEN THE LOW LFC/LCL HEIGHTS...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL EXIST WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS.

OVER AL...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL IS
PROPAGATING SWD FROM W OF AUO TO NW OF MCN INTO W-CNTRL GA. GIVEN
THE OUTFLOW-DOMINANT CHARACTER OF THIS ACTIVITY...IT APPEARS THAT
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE WITH MORE
DISCRETE STORMS WHICH WILL MOVE OUT OF NERN AND E-CNTRL MS OWING TO
THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO INSTABILITY AXIS AND MID/UPPER JET
STREAKS.

..MEAD.. 10/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

34549081 33738525 32188531 32959080 

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