[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 191606
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191606 
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-191730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2337
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MS EWD ACROSS SRN AL/WRN FL PNHDL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191606Z - 191730Z

SURFACE-BASED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
DEEPENING ALONG HORIZONTAL ROLLS WITHIN FREE WARM SECTOR FROM SRN LA
NEWD ACROSS SRN/CNTRL MS INTO SWRN AL. HERE...TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...AIR MASS HAS BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO
CAP /PER MODIFICATION OF 12Z SOUNDINGS/. WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS OVER THE ARKLATEX...EXPECT
TSTMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. 

CURRENT JAN VWP INDICATES AROUND 50 KTS OF 0-6 KM AGL SHEAR...WHICH
IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. MOREOVER...THE PRESENCE OF
0-1 KM SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2 AND RELATIVELY LOW LFC/LCL HEIGHTS
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

..MEAD.. 10/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

32569069 31868512 30488558 31249095 

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