[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 162017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162017 
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-162215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2316
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0317 PM CDT SAT OCT 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MD THROUGH NRN VA AND SERN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 162017Z - 162215Z

ISOLATED SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS DEVELOPING FROM NERN VA THROUGH NRN MD AND EXTREME SERN PA.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SURFACE HEATING AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET STREAK HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND MLCAPE AROUND 300 J/KG FROM NRN VA THROUGH MD AND INTO SE
PA. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS
ZONE OF ASCENT NEXT FEW HOURS. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50 TO 60 KT IS
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AND LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED MINI SUPERCELLS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN MD.
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...LOW WET BULB ZERO LEVELS AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL PROMOTE THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER ACTIVITY...BUT OVERALL THREAT IS LIMITED BY WEAK
INSTABILITY. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS.

..DIAL.. 10/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

39727611 38477608 38037762 38467815 39907685 

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