[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 151956
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151956 
PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-152200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2315
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT FRI OCT 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...MD AND NRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 151956Z - 152200Z

LIMITED THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH LINE
OF STORMS AS IT MOVES EWD THROUGH NRN VA AND MD NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL PA SSWWD THROUGH NRN
AND CNTRL VA. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE IN A
NARROW CORRIDOR E OF THE FRONT FROM NE VA INTO CNTRL MD WITH MLCAPE
AROUND 300 J/KG. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...FORCING FOR ASCENT
ALONG THE FRONT IS BEING ENHANCED BY A VORT MAX LIFTING NEWD THROUGH
THE SRN APPALACHIANS. SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER IS SUFFICIENT
FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITHIN THE LINE. HOWEVER...STORM INTENSITY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY MEAGER BUOYANCY. ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE LINE AS IT MOVES EWD THROUGH THE NARROW
INSTABILITY AXIS NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL.

..DIAL.. 10/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

38227823 38897796 39657771 39877693 38787658 37887776 

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