[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 180302
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180301 
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-180600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2318
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1001 PM CDT SUN OCT 17 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SW THRU CNTRL/E CNTRL AND SE MO

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 180301Z - 180600Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND
POSSIBILITY OF WW.

LATEST VWP AND PROFILER DATA INDICATE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET OF 40
TO 50 KT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. 
SUBSTANTIAL STRENGTHENING HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...
AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.  UPPER FEATURE IS
BREAKING DOWN INTO SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES AS IT CROSSES THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND MODELS SUGGEST LEAD SHORT WAVE MAY ENHANCE UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

RETURN FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE IS ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY...WITH SURFACE
DEW POINTS AS HIGH AS 70F ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.  WITH NORTHWARD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUING...AND ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT
LIKELY ONGOING ON NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL JET...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
LIFTED PARCELS MAY BEGIN REACHING LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY 05-06Z.  POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
CAPE MAY REACH/EXCEED 1500 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION...BASED NEAR TOP
OF LOW-LEVEL INVERSION LAYER /AT OR ABOVE 850 MB/.  THIS WILL BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR
SUPERCELLS...WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE ACTIVITY WILL INITIATE NORTH THROUGH
NORTHEAST OF THE SPRINGFIELD AREA...PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR BETWEEN COLUMBIA AND ST. LOUIS. MID-LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CAP AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

..KERR.. 10/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...

38819360 39099232 38919071 38348975 37398960 36808999
36299165 36939262 37499317 38089357 

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