[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 140400
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140400 
TXZ000-140600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2314
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 140400Z - 140600Z

SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN TX. THE
STRONGER CELLS WILL HAVE AN ISOLATED MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY WHERE A LINE OF CELLS IS DEVELOPING. THE FRONT IS CUTTING
UNDERNEATH THE STORMS AND THEY ARE ELEVATED IN NATURE. OTHER
SFC-BASED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR SAN ANTONIO ON THE EAST EDGE OF
AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY IN THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY. THE STORMS
ARE DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO A BAND OF WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
PASSING EWD TROUGH THE BASE OF A PLAINS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. IN
ADDITION...LIFT IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE MID-LEVEL JET. AS UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70 F SFC DEWPOINTS ARE
DRAWN NWWD INTO SCNTRL TX OVERNIGHT...THE MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR
AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL FAVOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
WITH HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..BROYLES.. 10/14/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...SJT...

28049692 27729734 28329835 30019935 30699894 31029804
30049718 28589642 

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