[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 132312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132311 
NCZ000-140115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2313
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0611 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 132311Z - 140115Z

AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ERN NC OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER...DECREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW THE
SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.

SEVERAL SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NRN AND ERN NC ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM A SFC LOW. THESE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT WHERE 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES RANGE FROM 40 TO 50 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY
LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ROTATING CELLS AND A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR. HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS INSTABILITY IS WEAK ACROSS
ERN NC WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 250 TO 500 J/KG. THE
INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO
COOL...ALLOWING THE SEVERE THREAT TO DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 10/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...

34847637 34757661 34917822 35327944 35707961 36257919
36167782 35897682 35537626 

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