[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 131700
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131700 
NCZ000-131830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2311
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 131700Z - 131830Z

THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO EXISTS ATTM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
COASTAL NC.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM DUE TO LIMITED TEMPORAL AND
SPATIAL NATURE OF THREAT.

LATEST DATA INDICATES MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS INVOF WEAK SURFACE LOW
OVER NERN NC ATTM.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGEST LESS THAN 1000 J/KG
MEAN-LAYER CAPE...BUT LATEST MHX /MOREHEAD CITY NC/ VWP -- SAMPLING
MOST FAVORABLE WIND FIELD JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW -- SHOWS A
MODERATELY-STRONG / VEERING PROFILE WITH HEIGHT AND 15 KT LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR. THEREFORE...WITH ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS
AND SUFFICIENT 0-1 KM SHEAR FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION...A LIMITED
THREAT FOR TORNADOES EXISTS ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF ERN NC AS PER
RECENTLY-ISSUED SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK.

ALTHOUGH LIMITED THREAT EXISTS...AREA AFFECTED REMAINS QUITE SMALL
-- GENERALLY WITHIN COASTAL NC COUNTIES EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM THE
ALBEMARLE TO THE PAMLICO SOUNDS.  THIS COMBINED WITH A CONTINUED EWD
SHIFT IN MAIN CONVECTIVE INITIATION ZONE SUGGESTS THAT THREAT
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY LIMITED IN BOTH TIME AND SPACE SUCH THAT
TORNADO WATCH MAY NOT BE REQUIRED.

..GOSS.. 10/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...

35907687 36317604 36247575 35257553 34687653 34687712
34847751 35647708 

WWWW