[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 111956
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111956 
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-112130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2310
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT MON OCT 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NM / FAR W TX...

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 111956Z - 112130Z

THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG / SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LIMITED COVERAGE ANTICIPATED SUGGESTS THAT WW
NOT NECESSARY ATTM.

LIMITED HEATING OF MARGINALLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /LOW 50S
DEWPOINTS/ CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF SRN NM AND FAR W TX...WITH ML
CAPE NOW NEAR 500 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION PER LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS.

MORNING EPZ /EL PASO TX/ RAOB INDICATED STEEP /7.9 C/KM/ MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATE AND FAVORABLY VEERING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW.  LATEST WSM
/WHITE SANDS NM/ PROFILER CONFIRMS THIS...WITH LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW
VEERING / INCREASING TO 50 KT FROM THE W AT MID LEVELS. 

DESPITE FAVORABLE WIND FIELD...INSTABILITY REMAINS A LIMITING
FACTOR.  AN ORGANIZED STORM HAS DEVELOPED AND IS MOVING E ACROSS
OTERO COUNTY NM...BUT DESPITE SOME WEAK ROTATION VIL HAS REMAINED
BELOW 40 WITH THIS STORM.  ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AS SOME ADDITIONAL HEATING / DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT OVERALL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY TO LIMIT
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT.  NONETHELESS...EXPECT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS INCH TO
GOLF BALL SIZE.

..GOSS.. 10/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...

31360898 32240938 33780885 34030636 33520406 32720288
31810225 31530347 30320356 29690452 30180471 30660500
31740638 31780821 31340819 

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